The Siren Song of “Beautiful Deleveraging”

“Beautiful deleveraging” is the policy goal, but what we might get is “ugly inflation.”

In a world of rising sovereign debts and an overleveraged, over-indebted private sector, history suggests there are only three possible ways out: gradual deleveraging, defaulting on the debt, or printing enough money to inflate away the debt.

Ray Dalio recently described the characteristics of a “beautiful deleveraging” in which equal doses of austerity, write-downs, and inflation gradually lighten the load of impaired debt. This might be called the Goldilocks Deleveraging, as the key feature of this “beautiful” solution is that each component is “not too hot, not too cold” – inflation is modest, write-downs of bad debt are gradual, and austerity is not too severe. Given enough time, the leverage and debt are worked off without requiring any structural change to the Status Quo.

Understandably, the Status Quo has embraced this solution for the appealing reason it doesn’t change the power structure at all. Everyone currently in charge remains in charge, and everyone who owns outsized wealth continues owning outsized wealth. Rather than falling onto the politically powerful “too big to fail” banking sector, the pain of deleveraging is spread over the entire economy. There is no such thing as painless deleveraging, so the “solution” is to distribute the pain over hundreds of millions of people. That’s what makes it “beautiful” to the Status Quo: It doesn’t cost them either their power or their wealth.

The Status Quo in Japan has pursued this strategy for 20 years, and the Status Quo in Europe and the U.S. have pursued it for the past four years, ever since the global financial system imploded in 2008.

Read More By Charles Hugh Smith.

Share

French Budget: 75% Tax for High Earners Confirmed

President Francois Hollande’s Socialist government unveiled sharp tax hikes on business and the rich on Friday in a 2013 budget aimed at showing France has the fiscal rigor to remain at the core of the euro zone.

The package will recoup 30 billion euros ($39 billion) for the public purse with a goal of narrowing the deficit to 3.0 percent of national output next year from 4.5 percent this year—France’s toughest single belt-tightening in 30 years.

But with record unemployment and a barrage of data pointing to economic stagnation, there are fears the deficit target will slip as France falls short of the modest 0.8 percent economic growth rate on which it is banking for next year.

The budget will also disappoint pro-reform lobbyists by merely freezing France’s high public spending rather than daring to attack ministerial budgets as Spain did this week in a bid to avoid the conditions of an international bailout.

Read More at cnbc.com.

Share

Bill Clinton is wrong. Barack Obama is wrong. This economy could be so much better

“No president — no president, not me, not any of my predecessors, no one could have fully repaired all the damage that he found in just four years.” – Bill Clinton, 2012 Democratic National Convention.

First things first: It’s unclear whether Bill Clinton has any special insight about dealing with recession and its aftermath. He inherited a nearly two-year-old recovery from his predecessor, George Bush. (In fact, U.S. GDP grew by 3.4% in 1992 vs. 2.9% in Clinton’s first year in office.) Clinton did, however, bequeath a recession to his successor, George W. Bush, after the Internet bubble popped. So there’s that.

More to the point, let’s look at Clinton’s New Normal claim. Repair all the damage? Has any of the damage been repaired?

1. If you take into account combined high unemployment, low labor force participation, and slow GDP growth, 2012 might well be the worst non-recession, non-depression year in the history of the United States. The only other challenger is 2011. Or maybe next year.

2. There has been no income growth during this recovery.

3. Indeed, by some measures, incomes have fallen sharply.

Read More at American Enterprise Institute. By James Pethokoukis.

Share

Tom Cloud: Silver is the Hot Thing Now

For the past couple of years, bullion dealer Tom Cloud has been the precious metals guru on the always-interesting and highly-recommended FTM Daily radio show. He’s been in the business for 35 years, can separate the legitimate players from the con artists, and always has a good story to tell. So we’ve asked him to become a regular contributor to DollarCollapse, via a weekly Q&A in which he’ll recap the past week’s metals action and cover one or two related topics. Today, among other things, he explains those tungsten-filled gold bars that seem to be turning up everywhere – and how to avoid them.

DollarCollapse: It’s a pleasure to finally speak with you, Tom. Let’s start with a little background. You’ve been in the precious metals business for three decades and have developed an unusual niche. How did you get there?

Tom Cloud: I used to be a market maker where I’d take an order for $10,000 or whatever and then buy a [futures] contract to lock in the commission. Eventually we had two full time employees just to do the hedging and even they couldn’t handle the volume. It turned into a paperwork nightmare, so we shifted gears. Now I’m a broker who matches buyers with eight of the biggest dealer inventories in the world. I’m always getting deals from wholesalers who have too much of something and are willing to discount it, allowing us to get clients a better price. We don’t charge a commission on sales, which means our round-trip prices beat most other dealers.

I also keep you away from the telemarketers, the Swiss Americas and GoldLines that have these 40% markups and put people in rare coins and tell clients that gold will be confiscated. I want to put customers into bullion that goes up or down based on the spot price of the metal, with the lowest possible mark-up.

DC: Has the attitude of your customers changed since the announcement of QE3?

Read More at dollarcollapse.com. By John Rubino.

Share

A Lost Decade for Savers

The 1990s were a lost decade for Japan. The 2000s delivered a lost decade to U.S. investors. Now, five years into the onset of the financial crisis, with stock and bond markets booming, housing resurgent, and even Detroit redeemed, it’s savers who find themselves in a lost decade.

This runs counter to the lessons of the credit bubble. We were urged to spend less, save more, tell fewer lies on our mortgage applications. Problem is, the jumbo monetary response to that era’s excesses—0 percent interest rates, followed by trillions in quantitative easing and a vow to keep rates this low until at least 2015—is bent on getting people and companies spending and investing (and out of cash) at pretty much any cost.

Five years ago, the average money-market fund yielded 0.93 percent, while a one- and five-year certificate of deposit yielded 3.75 percent and 4 percent, respectively, according to Bankrate. So $10,000 parked in a CD would earn approximately $400 a year. After taxes and inflation, that might leave just enough for date night at Ruth’s Chris.

Today, with the Fed having done everything in its power (and then some) to jackhammer down the Treasury curve, the average money-market fund yields 0.12 percent, which is bank boilerplate for nothing. A one-year CD offers 0.30 percent, and a 5-year certificate pays 1 percent. Your aforementioned 10 grand—no doubt dearer to you in this era of chronically high unemployment and uncertainty about retirement—huffs and puffs to produce a mere $100 in annual income. Back out taxes and inflation, and you’re losing money in a bank account—however FDIC-insured it may be.

“Policymakers had to pick between saving the system and punishing the savers, or letting the market fail and punishing everybody,” says Michael Livian, a Manhattan money manager who has written (PDF) on what’s increasingly being called the financial repression exacted by negative real interest rates. “They went for the first one.”

Policymakers call this recapitalizing the banking system. That’s so much euphemism for transferring wealth from depositors to taxpayer-rescued banks (and, at least theoretically, their borrowers). The banks are not exactly being bashful about the great deal they’re enjoying at the expense of cheap or free customer deposits. Consider: Only 39 percent of non-interest checking accounts are now free to all customers, compared with 76 percent in 2009, according to Bankrate. It says the average monthly service fee on checking accounts is at a record $5.48, up 25 percent in a year. It should thus come as little surprise that, subprime lessons be damned, the nation’s personal saving rate is declining (PDF). In desirable, heal-thyself-consumer fashion, saving spiked at the onset of the Great Recession after hitting a generational low at the peak of the housing boom.

Read More at businessweek.com. By Roben Farzad.

Share

Post Correction, The Upside For Gold & Silver Is Enormous

Today acclaimed money manager Stephen Leeb told King World News that “… once gold gets past this reaction, the upside is enormous and the same is true for silver.” Leeb also spoke about the dire situation in Europe and the US. Here is what Leeb had to say: “The story in Europe has really taken a dramatic turn for the worse. You now have Germany, the Netherlands, and Finland signing pacts opposing what the ECB wants to do. They are arguing for austerity.”

Stephen Leeb continues:

“They are basically saying we will give Spain a loan if Spain gives up its sovereignty. That’s what it amounts to, they want to extract very strict conditions. You’ve got riots in Spain and you’ve got riots in Greece.

The riots in Spain are really serious….

“Spain is divided into three different provinces, and now you’ve got one of the provinces wanting to declare independence. Spain, the country, it could just breakup. Many adults and children are starving.

In the midst of this you have other countries telling Spain it has to become more austere. They are arguing for things that would be even more punitive to the people. So it’s not surprising that you could be seeing a country on the verge of splintering.

In Greece you could have a takeover of the government. It’s happened before in Greece where the generals took over. This is why Draghi is desperate to buy the European debt of these crumbling nations. Until this situation is resolved, people may have periods where they get scared to death because the eurozone breaking up is going to create a short-term panic.

Read More at kingworldnews.com.

Share

Emerging economies at risk if rich nations should slow: IMF

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The International Monetary Fund cautioned emerging market countries on Thursday that their impressive growth could be at risk if advanced economies should slow, urging policymakers to ensure their economies were ready to respond.

The IMF said better policymaking over more than a decade in emerging and developing countries has made these economies stronger and better equipped to handle economic shocks, but emphasized that they were not immune to shocks from within or from abroad.

In initial chapters of its World Economic Outlook released on Thursday, the IMF warned that a surge in capital flows, rapid credit growth and high commodity prices, which have helped drive strong growth in emerging economies, were also prone to sudden stops.

“There is no guarantee that the relative calm emerging economies have enjoyed over the past two years will continue,” IMF economist Abdul Abiad told a news conference. “There is a significant risk that advanced economies could experience another downturn, and in such an event, emerging economies and developing economies will end up ‘recoupling’ with advanced economies.”

Signs that slowing global demand is cooling growth in most emerging economies are already apparent, with manufacturing output falling and business confidence waning. In July, the IMF shaved its growth forecasts for three of the four BRIC countries – Brazil, China and India. Only Russia avoided a cut in its forecast.

Read More at news.yahoo.com. By Lesley Wroughton.

Share

Why QE May Not Boost Stocks After All

If there is one dominant consensus in the financial sphere, it is that the Federal Reserve’s $85 billion/month bond-and-mortgage-buying “quantitative easing” will inevitably send stocks higher. The general idea is that the Fed buys the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and Treasury bonds from the banks, which turn around and dump the cash into “risk on” assets like equities (stocks).

This consensus can be summarized in the time-worn phrase, “Don’t fight the Fed.”

This near-universal confidence in a QE-goosed stock market is reflected in the low level of volatility (the VIX) and other signs of complacency such as relatively few buyers of put options, which are viewed as “insurance” against a decline in stocks. The usual sentiment readings are bullish as well.

But what if QE fails to send stocks higher? Is such a thing even possible? Yes, it does seem “impossible” in a market as rigged and centrally managed as this one, but there are a handful of reasons why QE might not unleash a flood of cash into “risk on” assets every month from now until Doomsday (i.e. December2015–the Mayans made one teeny addition error in Column 13).

1. Bullish sentiment. Though Mr. Market has been chained and whipped by central planning, he still harbors a mighty resistance to rewarding the majority in any trade, and with most traders firmly on the bullish side of the boat, Mr. Market might break free of the Fed’s chains long enough to capsize the boat.

Read More By Charles Hugh Smith.

Share

How Bad Is America’s Pension Funding Problem?

No sooner had the Chicago teachers’ strike been settled than a new crisis emerged last week in the Windy City. The Chicago Teachers’ Pension Fund was reported to be on the brink of collapse. That fund is not alone. Although the troubles that plague the Social Security system get the most attention, similar dangers now threaten many other kinds of retirement funds. Some plans are being inadequately funded, some have earned unexpectedly low returns, and some suffer from a Baby Boom bulge in the number of retirees. Moreover, the problems facing these funds will in many cases be harder to fix than those for Social Security. And the scale of the total potential shortfall is immense.

There are basically two types of retirement funds. Defined-contribution plans, such as 401(k)s and IRAs, are tax-advantaged accounts owned and largely funded by employees themselves (sometimes with additional contributions by employers). The only real risk for these funds is that the investments in the account may perform poorly. Over the past 12 years, unfortunately, most stocks have gained little or have actually declined in value. As a result, many people approaching retirement today have far less money than they expected.

While such a shortfall is distressing, it doesn’t compare with the dangers posed by the other type of plan. So-called defined-benefit plans promise to pay benefits to retirees based on the length of time they worked and their former salaries. If these plans run short of money, they not only leave retirees unsure that their benefits are safe, they also create a potential cost for whoever has to bail them out (often taxpayers). Such plans can slide along for years hiding their growing internal deficits with accounting tricks. But at some point, the funding gap becomes too big to disguise – which is what is happening now. How bad is the total problem? Let’s add it all up.

Read More at Time. By Michael Sivy.

Share

Plosser Says QE3 Risks Fed Credibility, Won’t Boost Jobs

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser said new bond buying announced by the Fed this month probably won’t boost growth or hiring and may jeopardize the central bank’s credibility.

“We are unlikely to see much benefit to growth or to employment from further asset purchases,” Plosser said in a speech today at the district bank in Philadelphia. “Conveying the idea that such action will have a substantive impact on labor markets and the speed of the recovery risks the Fed’s credibility.”

The Federal Open Market Committee said Sept. 13 that it will undertake a third round of quantitative easing by purchasing mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month until labor markets “improve substantially.” Policy makers are using unconventional tools to attack a jobless rate stuck above 8 percent since February 2009.

Economic research indicates that additional asset purchases are “unlikely to reduce long-term interest rates by a significant amount” and that lowering rates “by a few more basis points” won’t spur growth and hiring, said Plosser, who doesn’t have a vote on policy this year. The U.S. economy is growing “at a moderate pace” and probably will expand by about 3 percent in 2013 and 2014, he said.

‘Meager Benefits’

Stocks and oil reversed earlier gains and turned lower as Plosser spoke. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.3 percent to 1,451.97 as of 2:45 p.m. in New York, after climbing as much as 0.4 percent. Crude oil for November delivery dropped 0.8 percent to $91.31 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after rising as much as 1.2 percent earlier today.

Read More at bloomberg.com. By Jeff Kearns and Aki Ito.

Share

The Sound Money Institute is and educational organization dedicated to the stability and soundness of the United States Dollar. Faced with unprecedented pressure to spend beyond its means the United States Government has pressured the Federal Reserve Bank to monetize the debt or in other words they are printing currency to fund deficit spending by the US Treasury.

Subscribe here for daily updates on the most recent news from the financial sector.