About That “No Recession” Call…

Metrics of real economic growth are plummeting, and are about to drop through the “line in the sand” indicating recession.

Wise decisions, prudent adaptation and real progress all require facing reality: yes, the channel you can’t change. While the global economy melts like an ice cream cone in mid-July Death Valley, the official murmurings reassure us the U.S. is in “slow but steady growth, not recession.”

Courtesy of longtime contributor B.C., here is a chart that combines key metrics of real growth into one line and plots it against real GDP (gross domestic product).GDP is the blue line, and the black line depicts gross private investment + wages less debt service/M2 less the monetary base.

OK, that’s a mouthful, but what it combines are key measures of economic activity: private investment, net earnings minus debt service, i.e. what the household has to spend, and the money supply (M2) minus the monetary base.

Read  More By Charles Hugh Smith .

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Spain jobless rate over 20 pct, adding to woes

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Spain‘s jobless rate has risen over 20 percent for the first time since 1997, the government said Friday — more dismal news for a recession-plagued economy that is being dragged into Europe’s debt crisis.

The National Statistics Institute said the rate rose 1.22 percentage points in the first quarter to 20.05 percent.

While other major economies in Europe and elsewhere have posted at least tepid growth as they crawl out of recession, the eurozone’s fourth-largest economy is still contracting after the collapse of a construction boom that had fueled years of expansion.

The agency said at the end of March, there were over 4.6 million people out of work in the country. The jobless rate is the highest since the last quarter of 1997, when it stood at 20.11 percent.

Since Spain slipped into recession in 2008, the rate has roughly doubled, a dramatic development for a country that had been one of Europe’s top job-creators.

Read More: -By Daniel Woolls, the Associated Press

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Bernanke Says Joblessness, Foreclosures Challenges to Recovery

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Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said joblessness, home foreclosures and weak lending to small businesses pose challenges to the economy as it recovers from the worst recession since the 1930s.

“We are far from being out of the woods,” Bernanke said today in a speech in Dallas. While the financial crisis has abated and economic growth will probably reduce unemployment over the next year, the U.S. faces hurdles including the lack of a sustained rebound in housing, a “troubled” commercial real estate market and “very weak” hiring, he said.

The remarks reflect concerns by Fed officials at their meeting last month that the job market and tight credit would restrain consumer spending. At the session, Bernanke and his colleagues reiterated interest rates will stay very low for an “extended period.” He didn’t repeat that in today’s speech, while saying the Fed’s “stimulative” rates will aid growth.

“The economy has stabilized and is growing again, although we can hardly be satisfied when one out of every 10 U.S. workers is unemployed and family finances remain under great stress,” Bernanke said in prepared remarks to the Dallas Regional Chamber.

Read More: – By Scott Lanman and Darrell Preston, Bloomberg

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Recession hurting cruise ship builders

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The cruise industry is rebounding, but not for the companies who build the increasingly elaborate ships.

Executives from the major European shipyards say they’re not getting enough orders to keep busy and profitable. Though cruise bookings and prices are up, a flood of new ships is crowding the market, and operators have shown little willingness to buy more ships.

Only one new order was placed in 2009, and only four so far in 2010. That’s down from 21 in 2006, before the economic downturn began in December 2007.

“The cruise ship-building industry has slower reaction time and suffers from deeper distress in comparison with cruise lines,” said Corrado Antonini, chairman of the Italian state-owned Fincantieri Cantieri Navali Italiani S.p.A.

Read  More: –By Travis Reed, the Associated Press

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German bankruptcies up 15.5 pct in December

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German corporate bankruptcies rose in 2009 for the first time in six years, with filings up 15.5 percent on the year in December in the wake of recession, government data showed Tuesday.

The Federal Statistical Office said 2,583 companies filed for bankruptcy protection in the last month of 2009.

The year-on-year increase compared with a smaller 6.9 percent rise in November, but was in line with big increases in the two previous months.

Corporate bankruptcies were up 11.6 percent for the whole of 2009 over the previous year, with a total of 32,687 bankruptcy filings registered.

That was the first time since 2003 that the number of companies going bust rose from the previous year, the statistical office said. Overall, bankruptcies still fell short of the 2003 total of 39,320.

Read More: – By Geir Moulson, Associated Press Writer

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Recession Hammers Low-Wage Workers, but Glances Off the Affluent

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A new report on the impact of unemployment and underemployment during the Great Recession suggests that higher-paid workers have enjoyed practically full employment during the worst economic conditions in 80 years, while the lowest-paid workers have suffered through an unemployment rate above 30%.

The dismal findings are contained in a study by Andrew Sum, Ishwar Khatiwada and Sheila Palma of the Center for Labor Market Studies at Northeastern University, which details the unemployment and underemployment rates of workers in 10 different income categories during the period of October to December 2009.

Read More: – By Matthew Scott, Daily Finance

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Nucor’s DiMicco Calls U.S. Jobs Bills ‘Puny" Amid Recession

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Nucor Corp. Chief Executive Officer Dan DiMicco, who held onto his steel company’s 40-year no-layoff practice through the worst economic slowdown since the Great Depression, said job-creation bills in Congress are “puny.”

“They still don’t get the magnitude of the jobs crisis, and because they don’t, they keep coming up with so-called stimulus or jobs bills that are puny compared to the need to create 20-25 million jobs over the next 5 years,” DiMicco said yesterday in an e-mail. “They just don’t get it and they are not listening to those of us who have worked hard to offer real solutions.”

Nucor spent “hundreds of millions of dollars” to maintain its practice of not laying off workers, DiMicco said in a Feb. 2 interview. Now, he is calling for reducing trade deficits by achieving energy independence and protecting U.S. manufacturers from unfair trade practices by nations including China.

Read More: – By Edmond Lococo, Business Week

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Spain Stays Stuck in Recession as Economy Shrinks Again

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Spain remained stuck in recession in the fourth quarter, unlike other major European countries, as official figures released Thursday showed its economy shrank for a sixth consecutive quarter.

The news of the 0.1 percent drop in GDP in the last three months of 2009 came a day after Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero said Spain is close to following other European nations out of recession.

The National Statistics Institute said the fall compared to 0.3 percent decline in the third quarter.

Read More: – The Associated Press

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Fed Economist: Inflation Is Next Dragon to Slay

The Fed’s extraordinary support for the financial system suggests it will have less margin for error to stave off inflation as recovery gathers steam, according to a St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank economist.

The Fed — the U.S. central bank — cut benchmark interest rates to near zero in December 2008 and created emergency lending and purchase programs as it battled the worst recession in more than 70 years.

In so doing it has more than doubled the size of its balance sheet to around $2 trillion, worrying some economists that inflation will result once the economy recovers.

Some of the Fed’s special lending facilities are winding down on their own as financial conditions improve, St Louis Fed economist Kevin Kliesen wrote in the regional central bank’s quarterly review of business and economic conditions in an article entitled, “Inflation May Be the Next Dragon to Slay.”

“Still this process will not be sufficient to prevent a potentially destabilizing surge in money growth, which means that Fed policymakers will have to adopt other, more aggressive strategies.”

Read More: – Reuters

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Americans’ Job Satisfaction Falls to Record Low

We can’t get no job satisfaction.

Even Americans who are lucky enough to have work in this economy are becoming more unhappy with their jobs, according to a new survey that found only 45 percent of Americans are satisfied with their work.

That was the lowest level ever recorded by the Conference Board research group in more than 22 years of studying the issue. In 2008, 49 percent of those surveyed reported satisfaction with their jobs.

The drop in workers’ happiness can be partly blamed on the worst recession since the 1930s, which made it difficult for some people to find challenging and suitable jobs. But worker dissatisfaction has been on the rise for more than two decades.

Read More: – The Associated Press

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The Sound Money Institute is and educational organization dedicated to the stability and soundness of the United States Dollar. Faced with unprecedented pressure to spend beyond its means the United States Government has pressured the Federal Reserve Bank to monetize the debt or in other words they are printing currency to fund deficit spending by the US Treasury.

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