Tarullo Says Europe Crisis May Stall Global Recovery (Update1)

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Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo said Europe’s debt crisis poses a threat to the U.S. and world economies as trade shrinks and banks incur losses on European investments.

“A deeper contraction in Europe associated with sharp financial dislocations would have the potential to stall the recovery of the entire global economy, and this scenario would have far more serious consequences for U.S. trade and economic growth,” Tarullo said in testimony prepared for delivery today to House Financial Services subcommittees.

A weeklong selloff in stocks deepened as reports in the U.S. raised doubts about the strength of the economic recovery and leaders in Europe struggled to contain the region’s debt crisis.

The losses pushed the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index down 2.7 percent to 1,084.48 at 11:21 a.m. in New York, a move below the 200-day moving average level that some traders say could trigger more declines. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index plunged 2.8 percent, and the S&P GSCI Index of commodities tumbled to the lowest since October.

Read More:-By Joshua Zumbrun, Bloomberg

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Asia Gains, U.S. Drops in Competitiveness

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A lot can change in 12 months. At this time last year, Western nations dominated the annual ranking of the world’s most competitive countries prepared by the IMD business school in Lausanne, Switzerland. Now, in the most recent ranking released May 19, five of the top 10 are from the Asia-Pacific region. Emerging-power China, ranked No. 18, has gained ground, even as No. 3-ranked U.S. and No. 22-ranked Britain slipped in the global pecking order.

“For the first time, we’re seeing the creation of a self-sufficient economic block of developing countries,” says Stéphane Garelli, director at IMD’s World Competitiveness Center and co-author of the World Competitiveness Yearbook 2010. “They have money, markets, technology, and global brands that didn’t exist 10 years ago.”

The eastward shift isn’t likely to end soon. While Europe struggles to rein in gaping budget deficits and the U.S. continues to suffer from high unemployment, most emerging economies have weathered the economic downturn better—and are now back to work. Commodity-rich nations such as Brazil and Russia are benefiting from rising prices for everything from iron ore to oil to soya beans. Such manufacturing giants as China and India are tapping into growing domestic markets, fueled by emerging middle classes eager to spend their renminbi and rupees.

Read More: – By Mark Scott, Businessweek

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Data Hint U.S. Recovery Pace Is Moderating

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The pace of the U.S. economic rebound may be slowing, manufacturing data hinted on Monday, as concerns grow about the impact of Europe’s debt crisis on global growth.

A disappointing profit forecast by the second-largest U.S. home improvement store chain also clouded the recovery outlook.

The New York Federal Reserve said its gauge of manufacturing in New York state showed growth advanced at a slower pace in May. But in a positive sign the jobs index rose to its highest level in about six years.

“This is just confirmation that the recovery is not exactly robust,” said Peter Kenny, managing director of Knight Equity Markets in Jersey City, New Jersey.

Read More: – by John Parry, Reuters

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Trade deficit rises to $40.4 billion in March

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The U.S. trade deficit rose to a 15-month high as rising oil prices pushed crude oil imports to the highest level since the fall of 2008, offsetting another strong gain in exports. The larger deficit is evidence of a rebounding U.S. economy.

The Commerce Department said Wednesday that the trade deficit rose 2.5 percent to $40.4 billion in March. It was close to the $40.1 billion deficit economists had expected and the biggest monthly trade deficit since December 2008.

Exports of goods and services rose 3.2 percent to $147.87 billion, the highest level since October 2008. Imports were up 3.1 percent to $188.3 billion.

The higher deficit shows demand is picking up in the United States following the recession, which had cut the trade gap last year to the lowest level in eight years.

Economists believe U.S. manufacturers will continue to get a boost from rising demand for their products, reflecting the rebound in the global economy and a weaker dollar against many major currencies. However, that forecast could turn out to be too optimistic if a widening European debt crisis cuts into demand for American products in Europe, a major market for U.S. goods.

“The outlook for exports has been dampened by the fiscal crisis in Europe, which has reduced the prospects for overseas activity,” said Paul Dales, senior economist at Capital Economics.

Read More: By Martin Crustinger, the Associated Press

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The U.S. Trade Gap Won’t Go Away

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The U.S. trade deficit shrank like a puddle in the hot sun in 2008 and 2009 as appetite for imports melted in the recession and Asian export markets grew. With the U.S. economy now improving, the gap is widening again, dashing hopes that the U.S. is anywhere close to rebalancing trade with the rest of the world.

On Apr. 30 the Commerce Dept. announced that the economy grew at an estimated annual rate of 3.2 percent in the first three months of the year, propelled by stronger consumer spending and business investment. The bad news is that a lot of that consumption and investment went for imports. While exports grew at a 5.8 percent rate, imports grew at an annual rate of 8.9 percent. Overall, the trade deficit nicked 0.6 percentage points from the growth rate.

The broadest measure of the trade deficit peaked in 2006 at just over $800 billion, or 6 percent of gross domestic product. (These numbers describe the current account, which includes trade in goods and services as well as cross-border investment income.) By 2009 it was a little more than $400 billion, just under 3 percent of GDP. But by the second half of 2009, the gap had already come off its bottom—rising 18 percent from the second to the fourth quarter. “We would expect [the trade deficit] to grow a little bit faster than the overall economy,” says Ethan Harris, chief economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAC).

Read More: – By Peter Coy, Businessweek

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Greece’s fiscal woes threaten the U.S.

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A widening financial crisis in Europe is threatening to put a damper on the economic recovery here and abroad just as the American economy is gathering steam.

A credit contagion that began in heavily indebted Greece spread Wednesday to Spain, whose economy is much larger than Greece’s, as Standard & Poor’s cut the Madrid government’s credit rating, just one day after slashing Athens’ bonds to “junk” status and downgrading Portugal’s debt as well.

European officials pledged Wednesday to act swiftly on a hefty package of loans for Greece, but skepticism remained that Germany, the continent’s strongest economic power, would ultimately agree to the plan.

Even under the rosiest scenario in which a rescue package comes through and the problem is contained, analysts say, European economic growth will slow as more countries feel pressure to raise taxes and take other tough measures to get their fiscal affairs in order.

Read More: – By Don Lee, Los Angeles Times

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Weekly Claims Slip But Jobs Picture Remains Shaky

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The number of U.S. workers filing new applications for unemployment insurance fell slightly less than expected last week, government data showed on Thursday, implying only a gradual labor market improvement.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 11,000 to a seasonally adjusted 448,000 in the week ended April 24, the Labor Department said.

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected claims to fall to 445,000 from the previously reported 456,000, which was modestly revised up to 459,000 in Thursday’s report.

“Claims are still hovering at that tipping point around 450,000, which we think is the junction between corporate hiring and continuing a wait-and-see process,” said Alan Gayle, senior investment strategist at Ridgeworth Investments in Richmond, Va. “The report is moving in the right direction but is inconclusive.”

Read More: – By Reuters

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Is the US Facing a Cash Crunch?

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Editor’s Note: Gordon Long is a former senior group executive with IBM and Motorola, a principal in a high tech public start-up, and founder of a private venture capital fund. He is presently involved in private equity placements internationally along with proprietary trading involving the development and application of Chaos Theory and Mandelbrot Generator algorithms. For the full version of this article, click here.

The US government is caught in a cash vise and is being squeezed between too slow a rebound in tax revenues and the limitations on how quickly it can realistically take its funding requirements to the US Treasury auction. The US Treasury was saved in March by what the government reports as “proprietary receipts.” Those receipts require an explanation that isn’t well publicized since it begs the question of what happens next month without the $117 billion journal entry.

The March cash management numbers from the US Treasury’s Financial Management Service are alarming and in my estimation have become perilous. The economy is simply taking much too long to recover, which is affecting urgently required tax receipts.

Read More: – By Gordon T. Long

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Jim Rogers: Next Recession Will Be Much Worse

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The Great Recession that may have just ended will amount to nothing compared to the next one, says commodities expert Jim Rogers.

The huge fiscal and monetary stimulus is what will cause the crisis, he says. Rogers notes that the United States suffers a recession every four to six years on average.

“When it (the next one) comes, it’s going to be much worse, because Washington can’t quintuple its debt again,” he told Newsmax.TV Money.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is a big part of the problem, says Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings. “Mr. Bernanke can’t print much more money again. The world is going to run out of trees.”

Read More: – By Dan Weil, Moneynews

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U.S. Stocks Fall as Alcoa Sales Cast Doubt on Economic Recovery

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U.S. stocks fell, pulling the Dow Jones Industrial Average below 11,000, as Alcoa Inc.’s lower- than-estimated sales causes commodity producers to retreat and regional banks fell following an analyst’s downgrade.

Alcoa dropped 2.2 percent after the largest U.S. aluminum producer started the first-quarter reporting season with results that spurred concern that the economic recovery isn’t robust. Huntington Bancshares Inc. lost 6.5 percent and KeyCorp slumped 4.3 percent as UBS AG recommended selling the shares. Avon Products Inc. dropped 7.9 percent after suspending four executives as part of an internal investigation into practices at its China unit.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 0.4 percent to 1,191.47 at 11:52 a.m. in New York. The Dow retreated 16.10 points, or 0.2 percent, to 10,989.87, with losses limited by Home Depot Inc.’s rally after Fastenal Co., a seller of nuts and bolts, beat profit estimates.

Read More: – By Joanna Ossinger, Bloomberg

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The Sound Money Institute is and educational organization dedicated to the stability and soundness of the United States Dollar. Faced with unprecedented pressure to spend beyond its means the United States Government has pressured the Federal Reserve Bank to monetize the debt or in other words they are printing currency to fund deficit spending by the US Treasury.

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